My two cents...

I think we are overestimating the short-term impact of AI but underestimating the long-term impact again like what we did with other transformative technologies, like what Amara’s Law proposed.

There are 2 articles going viral now with opposite views:

https://lnkd.in/gXMqk2Pi

https://lnkd.in/gHjghidJ

We probably wouldn’t know who is right or wrong until after 5 to 10 years. But my prediction is both could be right at the same time.

I’m not sure who cares about my prediction. I wrote this to clear my own thinking and share it if it helps anyone.

Gartner plots the hype cycle as one peak and one trough.

My experience with AI is actually many peaks and troughs. A cycle of hype cycles.

And I can identify some of my peaks and troughs:

1. Peak: First used ChatGPT

Trough: It failed to answer my kid’s Primary 1 question

2. Peak: First tried Cursor

Trough: It couldn’t solve some simple bugs

3. Peak: First tried AI agents with n8n

Trough: Building a production workflow is non-trivial

4. Peak: Claude Code built my app in 3 days

Trough: Spent 10+ days fixing subscription bugs

5. Peak: Used subagents + skills to build another app

Trough: Pending

I’m probably at a peak right now. I know it.

I can see it is possible to use subagents + skills to automate not only product development, but marketing, sales, and ops - if you can write your workflow in markdown.

Not everyone is at the same stage in their hype cycle. This I think answers why views on AI are so polarizing.

Next time someone claims AI is incredibly powerful or completely overhyped, run through these questions.

1. Are they a marketer selling AI?

2. Are they an influencer farming engagement?

3. What tools have they used? Free tier, basic subscription, or power user?

4. What have they actually built or shipped with AI?

5. Are they already automating their own processes?