AI has little impact on world productivity. Why I'm not surprised.

Recently, Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei warns AI could wipe out 1 in 2 white collar jobs in next five years. Many quickly tried to prove him wrong by quoting a wave of recent studies claiming that AI has had little effect on business and global productivity.

At first, I thought their studies might be flawed. But on second thought, I believe most of them are right.

The reason?

Adoption is still lacking, despite the potential.

Human inertia is strong. And the world, after all, is the sum of all humans. So the resistance to change is the sum of our collective habits, fears, routines, and reluctance.

It’s common to hear traditional business owners say, “I’ve been doing business this way for 20 years.” Or senior professionals tell juniors, “This is how it’s always been done.”

After all, why change what has always worked?

Transformation usually happens only when a new generation takes over the business, or when new leadership is brought in to restructure.

Look at the Internet. We’ve been able to buy books, electronics, and more online for decades. But only in recent years have we seen major bookstores, department stores, and electronics chains shut their doors.

Why? Because it took one generation for digital natives to replace the previous one as the main group of spenders. And even then, it took a global pandemic to act as the final push.

AI will follow a similar path. The technology is ready. But most of the workforce isn’t ready, yet.

It will take a generation, one full cycle, for AI natives to replace today’s workforce as the new builders, decision-makers, and leaders.

You won’t see a big, dramatic shift. But the shift is already underway, quietly. It will be complete only when the next generation, who grew up using AI, replaces the current one.

Those who understand this and act early will ride the wave and come out on top. Those who just follow the wave will continue with business as usual. Those who resist will be left behind, like the businesses that closed or the professionals who became obsolete.

Be the disrupted or the disruptor. The choice is yours.

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